A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."